🚀一文解析2024太空產業：下一個兆美元產業？台灣能扮演什麼角色？

富豪的玩具 (Toys of the Rich)

2024/6/6 墨西哥灣岸，德州博卡奇卡發射場，擠滿了圍觀的群眾，Space X 星艦第四次試飛任務成功，這是一個無比驚奇的時刻，航太科技再向新的里程碑邁進。

以往對宇宙、太空的探索都是由國家所主導的，每一次的太空任務，火箭都被視為拋棄式的昂貴耗材，故而每次如果要向太空發送任何攜帶物，都需要耗費幾億甚至幾十億美元生產一枚全新的火箭。

然而馬斯克所創立的Space X，顛覆了這個傳統，開發出可回收性的火箭發射系統，而星艦計畫就扮演貨櫃航運的角色，藉由高度達120公尺的超重型火箭，達成登月和火星任務，成功的話有朝一日可能用不到1000萬美元的成本，就能輸送100噸重的物品進入太空，也就是100美元一公斤，在此基礎下，世界註定會邁向新的格局。

除了馬斯克外還有很多富豪對於太空探索有著濃厚的興趣，舉凡Amazon創辦人Jeff Bezos、維珍集團創辦人Richard Branson都先後推出太空旅遊的服務，即便一張門票往往動輒千萬起跳，但是預購票還是吸引無數富豪搶先購買，其中最瘋狂的當屬日本富豪前澤友作，早在2021年就向Space X支付10億美金，訂購月球航行計畫，徵求全球8位藝術家跟著他於2023年一起完成繞行月球的夢想，雖然最後因為星艦計畫一再拖延取消計畫，但可以很清楚的看出太空旅遊有著多麼大的商機。

June 6, 2024, Gulf Coast of Mexico, Boca Chica Launch Site, Texas: Crowds gathered to witness a remarkable moment as SpaceX’s Starship successfully completed its fourth test flight mission. This event marked a significant milestone in aerospace technology. Traditionally, space exploration has been a domain led by nations, with each space mission involving the use of costly, disposable rockets. The production of a new rocket for each mission would often cost billions of dollars.

However, SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, has revolutionized this tradition by developing a reusable rocket launch system. The Starship program, acting as a spacefaring cargo ship with its 120-meter-tall super-heavy rocket, aims to facilitate lunar and Mars missions. If successful, it could potentially transport 100 tons of cargo into space for less than $10 million, or $100 per kilogram, which would usher in a new era for global space activities.

Apart from Musk, other wealthy individuals have shown keen interest in space exploration. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Virgin Group founder Richard Branson have both launched space tourism services. Despite tickets often costing millions of dollars, pre-sales have attracted numerous affluent buyers. Among the most enthusiastic is Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa, who paid $1 billion to SpaceX in 2021 for a lunar mission, seeking eight artists worldwide to join him in a 2023 lunar orbit, a dream hindered by Starship delays.

2022年度全球太空行業發展現況 (Global Space Industry Development)

 全球太空產業在近幾年快速成長，2022年全球太空產業產值達到3840億美元，若單把衛星相關的服務獨立來看產值也超過2800億美元。整個衛星產業包含 ：

  1. 衛星服務：產生了1133億美元的收入，使用場景為通訊服務、GPS定位、地球觀測與科學研究。
  2. 地面設備：全年收入超過1450億美元。泛指消費者設備和網路設備，目前全球已有超過70億部衛星啟用的智能手機在使用！
  3. 衛星製造(158億美元）
  4. 發射服務(70億美元）

The global space industry has seen rapid growth in recent years, with a market value reaching $384 billion in 2022. Satellite-related services alone generated over $280 billion. The satellite industry encompasses:

  • Satellite Services: Generating $113.3 billion in revenue, used for communication services, GPS navigation, Earth observation, and scientific research.
  • Ground Equipment: With annual revenues exceeding $145 billion, this includes consumer devices and network equipment. Over 7 billion satellite-enabled smartphones are currently in use globally.
  • Satellite Manufacturing: Worth $15.8 billion.
  • Launch Services: Valued at $7 billion.

低軌衛星的發展 (Development of Low Earth Orbit Satellites)

目前低軌衛星產業算是太空產業中比較成熟的細分產業，其中地面設備又是重中之重，

這一點可以從上面的衛星產業四大面向看出端倪，整個衛星的生命週期當中，衛星發射與製造僅占整體產業的7-8%，主要價值還是放在衛星發射後，所提供的通訊服務與觀測資料。而這就需要軟體(衛星服務)和硬體(地面設備)的互相協作。

地面設備主要包括衛星接收站、天線、控制中心、VSAT（甚小孔徑終端）、網關以及其他通信和控制設備，目前星鏈(Starlink)稱得上是其中代表。

星鏈是由SpaceX開發的一個基於低地球軌道（Low Earth orbit, LEO）的衛星互聯網計劃，透過發射成千上萬顆衛星至距地600-2000公里高空處，建構出一覆蓋全球的通訊網路，這對於缺乏地面網絡基礎設施的地區提供了非常大的幫助：

  1. 減少城鄉差距
    • 在偏遠和農村地區提供網路服務，這些地區通常缺乏可靠的地面互聯網基礎設施，近期有看到一個有趣的例子是紐約時報，以訛傳訛的報導亞馬遜原始部落的年輕人，因為使用星鏈所以沈迷色情影片，從而不去打獵，最後導致當地部落使用網路澄清這是虛偽不實的報導。如果沒有衛星通訊，這些場景都難以實現。
  2. 應急通訊
    • 在自然災害或其他緊急情況下，提供穩定的通訊服務，協助救援和恢復工作。2022年以來的俄烏戰爭，低軌衛星所帶來的通訊功能，使得烏克蘭在基地台被俄羅斯摧毀的清況下，仍能保持戰區與指揮中心的通訊連接。

The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite industry is one of the more mature segments of the space industry, with ground equipment being particularly crucial. From the four main aspects of the satellite industry, it’s evident that satellite launching and manufacturing constitute only 7-8% of the industry’s value. The primary value lies in the communication services and observational data provided post-launch, necessitating the collaboration of software (satellite services) and hardware (ground equipment).

Ground equipment includes satellite receiving stations, antennas, control centers, VSAT (Very Small Aperture Terminals), gateways, and other communication and control devices. Starlink, developed by SpaceX, is a representative project in this area. Starlink aims to create a global communication network by launching thousands of satellites to 600-2000 km above the Earth, providing significant help to areas lacking ground network infrastructure:

  • Bridging the Urban-Rural Divide: Providing internet services in remote and rural areas that often lack reliable ground internet infrastructure. An interesting example reported by The New York Times involved misinformation about Amazonian tribes using Starlink to watch porn instead of hunting, which the tribes refuted using the very same internet service.
  • Emergency Communications: Offering stable communication services during natural disasters or emergencies, aiding in rescue and recovery efforts. During the Russia-Ukraine war starting in 2022, LEO satellites enabled Ukraine to maintain communication between the war zone and command centers despite the destruction of base stations by Russia.

地球觀測發展現況 (Current Status of Earth Observation Development)

地球觀測利用衛星對地球進行持續監測，應用範圍廣泛，包括環境監測、軍事領域、農業管理、城市規劃、自然災害預警和資源勘探等。

發展現況(Current Developments)

  1. 高分辨率成像
    • 高分辨率光學和雷達成像衛星可以提供更精細的地表圖像和數據，支持精細的環境監測和城市規劃。
  2. 多光譜和超光譜成像
    • 多光譜和超光譜成像技術可以捕捉不同波長的光譜數據，這對於農業、環境和礦產勘探等領域的應用至關重要。
  3. 實時數據傳輸
    • 衛星數據傳輸速度的提升，使得實時監測和數據分析成為可能，這對於災害預警和應急響應非常重要。
  4. AI和大數據分析
    • 人工智能和大數據分析技術被廣泛應用於衛星數據處理和分析，提升了數據的應用價值和效率。

Earth observation utilizes satellites for continuous monitoring of the planet, with application in environmental monitoring, military, agricultural management, urban planning, disater warning and resource exploring.

  • High-Resolution Imaging: High-resolution optical and radar imaging satellites provide detailed surface images and data, supporting precise environmental monitoring and urban planning.
  • Multispectral and Hyperspectral Imaging: These technologies capture spectral data at different wavelengths, crucial for agriculture, environmental, and mineral exploration.
  • Real-Time Data Transmission: Improved satellite data transmission speeds enable real-time monitoring and data analysis, vital for disaster warnings and emergency responses.
  • AI and Big Data Analysis: Widely applied in satellite data processing and analysis, enhancing the value and efficiency of data applications.

真實案例(Real-World Cases)

  • Planet Labs: 美國的Planet Labs公司運營著全球最大的地球觀測立方衛星星座，每日拍攝地球全景，這些數據廣泛應用於農業、森林管理、城市發展和國防等領域。這有助於監測森林濫伐、追蹤非法船隻和戰場情蒐。
  • GHGSat : 加拿大的GHGSat 公司是一家專門從事溫室氣體監測的公司，利用衛星技術來測量地球大氣中的溫室氣體濃度。這些分析結果可用於了解排放源的特徵、排放強度和排放趨勢並提供詳細的地理定位數據。
  • Planet Labs: An American company operating the world’s largest fleet of Earth observation cubesats, capturing daily images of the Earth. These data are used in agriculture, forest management, urban development, and defense, helping monitor deforestation, track illegal ships, and gather battlefield intelligence.
  • GHGSat: A Canadian company specializing in greenhouse gas monitoring, using satellite technology to measure atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The analysis results help understand emission sources, intensity, and trends, providing detailed geolocation data.

台灣在太空產業的機會(Taiwan’s Opportunities in the Space Industry)

台灣在太空產業中的最大優勢在於衛星地面設備，相較於衛星發射般相對陌生領域，臺灣在發展網路、通訊產業相關的「地面設備」技術上，占有一定的優勢。此外台灣擁有強大的半導體和電子製造能力，這點是世界頂級大廠舉凡蘋果、輝達都很讚許的，而這也為衛星製造和設計提供了良好的基礎。

Taiwan’s greatest advantage in the space industry lies in satellite ground equipment. Compared to the relatively unfamiliar field of satellite launches, Taiwan holds a significant edge in developing network and communication-related “ground equipment” technologies. Additionally, Taiwan boasts strong semiconductor and electronics manufacturing capabilities, highly praised by top global companies like Apple and NVIDIA. This robust foundation also supports satellite manufacturing and design.

1. 衛星製造與設計(Satellite Manufacturing and Design)

台灣從1991年開始發展太空計畫，發射福爾摩沙系列衛星，其中2024年更是發射出自製的獵風者(Triton)氣象衛星，值得注意的是這顆衛星所提供的海洋風速資訊，將能夠進一步大幅提升天氣預報的能力，尤其是對於臺灣至關重要的颱風強度與路徑的預測。

另外台灣還可以專注於小型衛星（如立方衛星）和微衛星的研發與生產，這些衛星在地球觀測、科學研究和通訊領域有著廣泛的應用。

而其中張量科技所生產的球型馬達，可以取代多顆傳統馬達，省下大量的衛星內部空間、提升衛星的有效荷載，進而創造更多任務價值。

Since 1991, Taiwan has been developing its space program, launching the Formosat series of satellites. Notably, in 2024, Taiwan launched its self-developed Triton weather satellite, expected to significantly enhance weather forecasting capabilities, particularly for typhoon intensity and path predictions critical to Taiwan.

Taiwan can also focus on developing and producing small satellites, such as cubesats and microsatellites, widely used in Earth observation, scientific research, and communication.

Tensor Technology’s spherical motors, replacing multiple traditional motors, save significant satellite internal space, increase effective payload, and create more mission value.

2. 衛星通訊與地面設備(Satellite Communication and Ground Equipment)

台灣的通信技術和電子產品製造能力也使其能夠生產高性能的地面設備，如VSAT、網關和天線。老牌微波天線廠商-芳興科技，全程參與台灣的太空計劃，目前發射出去的每一顆人造衛星(福爾摩莎衛星)都搭載芳興科技的天線，透過福衛衛星的實戰經驗，目前也已經走向國際，接下南韓、新加坡以及阿拉伯大公國的訂單。

另外海上的通訊，無法像陸地上一樣使用4G、5G服務，海上通訊只能透過衛星達成，因此攻佔海上通訊也成了台廠的一大新顯學，舉凡中華電信、隴華電子、台亞皆積極佈局相關服務。

Taiwan’s communication technology and electronic product manufacturing capabilities allow it to produce high-performance ground equipment, such as VSATs, gateways, and antennas. Fangxing Technology, a veteran microwave antenna manufacturer, has fully participated in Taiwan’s space program. Each Formosat satellite launched carries Fangxing’s antennas, which, through practical experience, have entered international markets, securing orders from South Korea, Singapore, and the UAE.

Additionally, maritime communication, unlike land-based 4G/5G services, relies solely on satellites. Thus, capturing the maritime communication market has become a significant new venture for Taiwanese companies, with firms like Chunghwa Telecom, Longhua Electronics, and Taya actively deploying related services.